With US trade tariffs looming, EURUSD quotes may fall to 1.1730. Details – in our analysis for 7 July 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The US is determined to impose tariffs of up to 50% on eurozone producers
- Eurozone retail sales volume: previous value – 2.3%, forecast – 1.2%
- EURUSD forecast for 7 July 2025: 1.1730
Fundamental analysis
The forecast for 7 July 2025 takes into account that over the weekend EU and US representatives held negotiations to ease tariffs on goods imported into the US. Producers from the eurozone are trying to reach a deal with the US before 9 July on softer terms regarding trade tariffs, which come into force from 1 August 2025. The US promises to impose tariffs of up to 50% on European exporters, aiming to “protect local producers.”
Such harsh tariffs will significantly affect the competitiveness of European goods, including car manufacturers. Undoubtedly, these tough measures from the US will not go unnoticed by other countries, which may introduce mirror measures to compensate for losses. How this will impact currencies in the future remains to be seen, but at the moment the forecast for EURUSD is not in favour of the euro.
Amid trade disagreements between the US and the EU, eurozone retail sales volume for the previous reporting period may decline to 1.2%. Against this backdrop, EURUSD is forming a corrective wave and has every chance of continuing its pullback.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, EURUSD price formed a reversal pattern – Shooting Star – near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, it continues its downward wave as part of working out this signal. Given that quotes remain within the ascending channel, their further pullback to the nearest support at 1.1730 can be expected. A break below this support will open prospects for further correction.
However, the forecast for EURUSD today does not rule out a rise to 1.1865 and strengthening of the upward dynamic without testing support.
Summary
The forecast for 7 July 2025 favours USD. A decline in eurozone economic indicators, combined with technical analysis of EURUSD, suggests a price correction to support at 1.1730 USD before potential growth.
