The USDCAD rate has slipped below the key 1.4000 level amid a corrective pullback, as markets anticipate an upcoming interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Discover more in our analysis for 27 October 2025.
USDCAD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: this week’s main events include rate decisions from the Fed and the Bank of Canada
- Current trend: moving downwards
- USDCAD forecast for 27 October 2025: 1.3900 or 1.4080
Fundamental analysis
The USDCAD pair is moderately declining at the start of the week as markets price in a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of Canada at its upcoming Wednesday meeting, according to recent economists’ surveys.
At the same time, US inflation data for September came in slightly weaker than expected, fuelling expectations that the Federal Reserve will also lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday. This anticipated policy easing is already largely priced into the pair’s current levels.
USDCAD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the USDCAD pair continues to move lower within its ongoing correction phase. The broader daily trend remains bullish, suggesting that after the current pullback, the pair could resume its upward trajectory.
The short-term USDCAD forecast suggests a further decline towards 1.3900 if bears gain a foothold below 1.4000. Conversely, if bulls regain control and push the price back above 1.4000, the pair could climb towards the 1.4080 resistance level and higher.
Summary
The USDCAD pair has slipped below the psychologically significant 1.4000 level. This week’s focus remains on the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
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