The USDJPY rate is declining, moving to 147.00 following the release of data showing that Japan’s core inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target. Find out more in our analysis for 29 August 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: Japan’s core consumer inflation in August came in at 2.5% year-on-year
- Current trend: trading within a wide sideways range
- USDJPY forecast for 29 August 2025: 146.00 or 148.00
Fundamental analysis
Japan’s core consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year in August 2025, marking the third consecutive monthly slowdown and matching market expectations. Despite the decline, inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target, supporting expectations for further rate hikes this year.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently noted that wage growth is expected to continue amid tightening labor market conditions, reinforcing the view that the conditions for another rate hike are gradually forming. At its July meeting, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged but raised its inflation outlook.
USDJPY technical analysis
The USDJPY pair is moving lower after failing to break above the resistance level near 148.00. The Alligator indicator has turned down, confirming the current bearish momentum. The local support level lies at 146.70, and a breakout below it would open the way to 146.00.
Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests further decline towards 146.00 if bears maintain control. An upward move will be possible if bulls reverse the price and gain a foothold above 147.00, paving the way for growth towards the 148.00 resistance level.
Summary
The USDJPY pair is edging lower, dipping to the 147.00 mark. Market participants continue to expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates further due to persistently high inflation.
Open Account
