The USDJPY pair fell to 147.40, with signals from the BoJ interpreted ambiguously. Discover more in our analysis for 28 August 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- The USDJPY pair is steadily declining, but strategically, little has changed for the instrument
- The market awaits Friday’s Japanese statistics to determine a short-term direction
- USDJPY forecast for 28 August 2025: 146.90
Fundamental analysis
On Thursday, the USDJPY rate dropped to 147.40, continuing the sideways trend that has persisted for nearly four weeks. Investors have taken a wait-and-see stance ahead of several key macroeconomic releases.
On Friday, Japan will publish reports on industrial production, retail sales, and consumer confidence. Special attention will be paid to Tokyo inflation, which is traditionally seen as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends. This data may provide clues on the BoJ’s next steps.
Last weekend, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that wage growth will continue amid labour shortages. This reinforces expectations that conditions for another rate hike are gradually taking shape.
At the July meeting, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged but raised inflation forecasts and gave a more optimistic assessment of the economic outlook.
Today’s USDJPY forecast is moderate.
USDJPY technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair shows a sideways trend within the recent weeks’ range.
The pair fluctuates around 147.40, with occasional sharp spikes up and down but without firm consolidation beyond key levels. The resistance level is near 148.70, while support holds in the 146.90-147.00 area.
The Bollinger Bands indicator shows narrowing, confirming a consolidation phase and market pause before new drivers emerge. Attempts to rise above 148.50 have failed, with each upward wave quickly reversing. On the other hand, the 147.00 area consistently restrains sellers.
Overall, the chart reflects trader caution. The market is balancing in a narrow range, and a breakout above 148.70 or below 146.90 will signal the start of a new trend.
Summary
The USDJPY pair is slightly declining, but the medium-term trend remains unchanged. The USDJPY forecast for today, 28 August 2025, suggests a move down to 146.90.
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