USDJPY moves lower to 143.79. The market awaits US data and monitors trade news. Details – in our analysis for 3 July 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- USDJPY pair continues to decline with no signs of stopping
- Market focus – US trade deals and rising pressure on Japan
- USDJPY forecast for 3 July 2025: 142.67
Fundamental analysis
USDJPY fell to 143.79 on Thursday. The yen gained support from a weaker dollar and continued optimism over trade negotiations.
Japanese authorities confirmed their desire for a mutually beneficial agreement with Washington but did not reveal details of possible concessions. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump increased pressure on Tokyo, calling the negotiations very difficult and threatening tariffs of up to 35% on Japanese imports. The dissatisfaction stemmed from Japan’s limited purchases of US rice and cars.
Additional support for risk assets came from news about the finalisation of a US-Vietnam trade agreement, which includes a 20% import tariff. This boosted hopes for further progress in talks with other countries.
The yen also received support amid dollar weakness. Investors await the release of the US June employment report. Weak data may strengthen arguments for a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as July.
The forecast for USDJPY is negative.
USDJPY technical analysis
On the H4 chart for USDJPY, the price reversed downwards and entered a correction after rising to the 148.03 high. The minimum decline was recorded around 142.67, from where a moderate rebound began. Currently, quotes have stabilised near 143.79 but remain below key resistance levels.
The nearest resistance zone lies at 144.24, with a higher key boundary at 144.96. Holding below these levels keeps pressure on the dollar and signals the predominance of the downward impulse.
For the pair to return to growth, it needs to pass through the 144.00–145.00 area. If this does not happen, the risk of a retest of support at 142.67 becomes relevant.
Summary
The USDJPY pair maintains its downward momentum and could move even lower. The forecast for USDJPY today, 3 July 2025, expects a slide towards 142.67.
