The USDJPY rate remains stuck in a sideways range, with weak Japanese trade data and technical factors strengthening bearish sentiment. The rate currently stands at 146.49. Find more details in our analysis for 17 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Japan’s exports fell 1% in August, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline
- Japan’s imports dropped 5.2%, below the forecast of -4.1%
- The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its key rate at 5% this week
- USDJPY forecast for 17 September 2025: 145.35
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate is edging higher after yesterday’s sharp decline, with buyers defending the 146.55 support level and keeping the pair within the sideways corridor that has held for more than 30 consecutive sessions.
Weak trade figures intensified pressure on the yen, fuelling concerns about Japan’s export-driven economy. Exports dropped 0.1% in August, the fourth consecutive monthly fall, driven by a steep 13.8% plunge in shipments to the US. Imports shrank 5.2%, a smaller drop than July’s 7.4% fall but worse than analysts’ forecast of -4.1%. This was the fifth contraction in purchases in 2025, reflecting weak domestic demand and high resource costs.
On the policy side, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave its key rate unchanged at 0.5% this week, given tariff threats from the US.
USDJPY technical analysis
The USDJPY rate remains within a descending channel, trading below the EMA-65, which keeps the advantage on the sellers’ side.
Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests a bearish scenario, with the pair likely to decline towards 145.35. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved into overbought territory and is forming a reversal signal, confirming a potential pullback.
Consolidation below 146.05 would strengthen the case for further USD weakness against the yen, opening the way towards the next support level near 145.65.
Summary
Weak trade data and expectations of continued BoJ dovishness are weighing on the yen. Technical analysis of USDJPY points to a high probability of a decline towards 145.35.
Open Account
