XAUUSD quotes are recovering due to rising safe-haven demand amid budgetary and trade risks. Current quote – 3,339 USD. Details – in our analysis for 4 July 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- In June, US companies created 147,000 new jobs
- US unemployment rate fell to 4.1% instead of the expected 4.3%
- XAUUSD forecast for 4 July 2025: 3,465
Fundamental analysis
XAUUSD price is rising after yesterday’s sharp decline. Gold prices fell following strong US labour market data: in June, US companies created 147,000 new jobs – significantly above the forecast of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% instead of the projected 4.3%. These figures reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep the interest rate at its current level.
However, concerns over the growing US budget deficit and persistent uncertainty in trade policy have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. An additional factor was the passage of President Donald Trump’s bill in Congress, which provides for tax cuts and reductions in government spending. Moreover, Trump stated he would send letters to foreign partners on Friday specifying import tariff rates to the US – a move signalling a departure from the previous bilateral negotiation approach. This offsets part of the pressure from the strong labour market data and supports gold’s short-term recovery within the XAUUSD price forecast.
XAUUSD technical analysis
XAUUSD quotes are trading within a Triangle pattern and holding above the support level at 3,305. The XAUUSD forecast for 4 July 2025 suggests an upward movement with a potential breakout of resistance at 3,385 and a rise towards 3,465.
Technical indicators confirm the growth scenario: the price remains above key moving averages (EMA-65 and EMA-285), indicating a prevailing upward impulse. Stochastic Oscillator values have not yet reached the overbought zone, which allows for further development of the bullish impulse.
Confirmation of continued growth would be a breakout of the 3,388 level with consolidation above it. An alternative scenario is a retest of the 3,315 support and a rebound from the demand zone with subsequent upward movement.
Summary
Despite pressure from strong employment data, growing budgetary and trade risks support gold’s short-term recovery. XAUUSD analysis for today indicates a prevailing upward impulse with a potential breakout of 3,385 and movement towards 3,465.
