Stagnation in US GDP could weaken the USD, allowing XAUUSD quotes to test the 3,430 USD level. Find more details in our analysis for 28 August 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- US Q2 GDP: previously at 3.0%, projected at 3.0%
- US initial jobless claims: previously at 235 thousand, projected at 231 thousand
- Current trend: moving upwards
- XAUUSD forecast for 28 August 2025: 3,430 or 3,370
Fundamental analysis
Today’s XAUUSD analysis shows gold trading around 3,388 USD per ounce, maintaining steady growth with minor corrections. Despite economic uncertainty and the geopolitical backdrop, XAUUSD prices continue to regain ground.
GDP represents the total value of all goods and services produced in a country, measured by final output excluding raw materials.
The XAUUSD forecast for 28 August 2025 appears optimistic for gold, assuming US GDP remains flat at 3.0% compared to the previous quarter. GDP stagnation could weaken the USD and trigger further XAUUSD growth.
US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.
The previous reading was 235 thousand, while forecasts suggest a slight decrease to 231 thousand. Although the change is minor, the actual results will shed light on the labour market’s real condition. If data meets or beats expectations, it could provide limited support for the USD.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair continues an upward wave in line with the pattern’s signal. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the uptrend could continue. The immediate upside target lies at 3,430 USD.
At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers an alternative scenario, where the price corrects towards 3,370 USD before resuming growth.
There is still a possibility for the uptrend to continue, with XAUUSD quotes potentially heading towards 3,500 USD in the near term.
Summary
While a possible decline in US jobless claims may lend some support to the USD, XAUUSD technical analysis suggests continued growth towards the 3,430 USD resistance level after a correction.
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