The probability of a deal to freeze OPEC at a meeting this month looks less real.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. He says that the failure of the agreements the price of oil will fall to $ 40 or even more.
"The lack of progress on the implementation of production quotas and the growing differences between OPEC producers suggest a decrease Vero tnosti reach an agreement on November 30," said Goldman analysts in a note on 31 October.
"Obstacles to the conclusion of the agreement are enormous," says Greg Shernau, portfolio manager at Pimco .
Organization of petroleum exporting countries is due to meet in Vienna for the first time to initiate the reduction of supply over the past eight years. OPEC should join other oil producers from countries not members of the cartel, including Ros UIS.
The price of Brent crude oil fell to $ 50 a barrel on Monday after the technical meeting, which took place at the weekend, it has not brought any clarity on specific figures to limit supply.
Even if the latter decline in oil prices and encourage a group of countries to accelerate the development of a specific agreement, the probability of successful reduction of oil reserves is extremely low, the bank said.
The growth of production in OPEC member countries in October and increasing production in others countries will not be allowed to strike a balance between existing energy resources and their supply in the first half of 2017, according to representatives of Goldman. The Bank estimates the average volume of OPEC production 34.2 million barrels per day over the past month.
All 14 members of OPEC and Russia intend to conclude an agreement, the general secretary of the cartel Mohammed Barkindo Monday. Even Iraq, who demanded to release him from any cuts and pledged to increase production, is ready to play its role in the transaction.
OPEC will face serious problems in the implementation of a potential deal, said Mr. Shernau. While the oil market is almost balanced, stocks still remain high, he added.
The cost of Brent crude oil for January delivery rose 48 cents to $ 49.09 a barrel during trading on the London futures exchange ICE. The cost of futures contracts for delivery in the coming months, fell 2.8% on Monday.
Based on materials WELTRADE
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