The Canadian company BCA Research, specializing in investment research, has published a very peculiar analytical review "Risk Judgment Day." Chief strategist at BCA Research, Peter Berezin, a former economist at Goldman Sachs, is given to non-trivial investment analysis questions: can come to an end and what is the probability of total destruction of human civilization. While such a hypothetical event is believed to be related to the so-called "tail risks» (tail risk), implying an extremely low probability, yet it can not be underestimated.
Recognizing that the calculation of probabilities - this is just a mind game, Mr. Berezin, however, is estimated at 50% probability of destruction of mankind in 2290 and 95% that it will happen in 2710. Accordingly, assuming that humanity in the foreseeable future is waiting for death, the accumulation of funds ceases to be quite so attractive. Lower levels of savings, in turn, implies a higher rate and, therefore, cheaper bonds.
Financial companies periodically release analytical reports on unusual topics. The reasons for this are probably two. The maximum resonance in the media to public relations and attract more customers - this is the first reason. The second reason - unusual people who sometimes can not stop the flight of his imagination often work in analytical departments. However, it should return to the issue raised in the study: it is, of course, may be two points of view, which, oddly enough, in the end will give the same result.
If you are a religious person, the date of end of the world no one knows, except God. And, accordingly, you should live, not really thinking about this issue, taking advantage of the investment standard conventional tools.In history, especially medieval, known cases of mass insanity, associated with the expectations of the arrival of the Antichrist and the end of the world. Antichrist thought of Genghis Khan, Peter the Great, Lenin, and so on. D. However, the human behavior has nothing to do with the Christian view of the world, nor with common sense. If you are an atheist, you have to understand that the probability of the end of humanity in your lifetime or during the life of your immediate descendants is low enough. So, to build an investment strategy in anticipation of a doomsday is just silly.
However, not all so simple. If tomorrow mankind will cease to exist, it seems very logical immediate sale of all assets and expenditure of the proceeds of the wine, entertainment, and other pleasures. To whom it may be advantageous ?! First of all, those who opened a short position on all types of assets. "Shorts" in this case, all you need - stocks, bonds, oil, etc. And, of course, the entertainment industry, -.. It is uniquely good work.
Naturally, the majority of investors are very reasonable people and will not panic after reading the review abled analysts. This might work in the nineteenth century, but not now. However, in our view, go to the cache and convert all dollar-selling all stocks and bonds may not be a bad idea. The growth rate of the Fed at the next meeting is unlikely, but certainly not far off.
According to the materials of Alpari
