Strategists at Deutsche Bank recently released a great review of the risks of recession in the US. The main idea of the review - all leading indicators suggest a looming recession - by AMarkets materials.
According to analysts of the bank, the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 30%. In 1990, 2001 and 2008, before the onset of the recession in the "red zone" at the same time left a number of important indicators.Profit corporations and labor market conditions index Fed becomes negative. The volume of capital investments decreased, growing volume of defaults on loans. All that we see now in the US, but it seems that the market does not care, he perceives the signals as false. The stories have been instances where the indicators did not work, for example, in 1986.. But it is worth remembering that this was a unique situation, reminiscent of the Bank's strategy. The risk of a recession may increase if the Fed decides to raise rates. And if industrial production will show a negative trend.
