In the opinion of JPMorgan, the Russian stock market presents a number of exciting opportunities for investment, despite the current anti-Russian sanctions and the current tensions between the US and Russia over the situation in Syria. At the same time against the backdrop of tensions between Russia and the United States, the Russian stock market is trading with an increasing discount to other emerging markets. Also, in the opinion of JPMorgan, the price of oil recovered from the very low levels, and will remain, at least at the current position in the medium term.
It is said that an optimistic outlook for Russia, of course, pleases. Very nice that in the West there are private finance companies that have a positive and not a politicized view of Russia. That is, JP Morgan is not Moody's, and S & P, and not the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin, recommending, as it is known, to buy dollars.
From a fundamental point of view, we fully agree with colleagues. In the long term the shares of Russian companies, possibly the best investment in the world. The market will sooner or later always appreciate the fundamental value of the company. The most striking example of the growth of quotations of "Gazprom" shares to $ 13 in the zero years, is now one share of the gas holding is worth $ 2.2. However, just in 2017 the prospects of Russian equities do not look so optimistic.
The main risk - the possible devaluation of the ruble, which is able to cause a sell-Russian equity. The reasons for the fall of the ruble a lot: it's possible tightening of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, a rapid decline in the key rate of the Central Bank, the development of US shale and falling oil prices. In this case, the devaluation is to support the Russian budget, and therefore neither the Ministry of Finance or the Central Bank will not oppose.
Therefore, to buy Russian stocks, of course, necessary, but with an eye on the three or five years. The situation is very similar to the beginning of zero years, when no one believed that the discount to the emerging markets Russia can "to collapse".
Analytics Alpari Alexander Razuvaev
