Known fact, market participants and traders and investors in their work should take into account the risks. The risks are different as the obvious, which can provoke a general commotion, and the hidden consequences after which will only be felt after some time.
The obvious risks of today can and should include upcoming events in Europe, and French presidential elections. Since the victory of Donald Trump in the elections in the United States, and Brexit, investors and traders is, they correctly understand the policy and can correctly predict the future situation.
According to the survey respondents Bank of America Merrill Lynch, namely elections in Europe today is the biggest risk for the global markets.
Many investors believed that the political leaders of the presidential race is clear, and the victory in the elections in France in the second round win centrist Emmanuel Macron, beating the leader of the radical right-wing party and eurosceptic Marine Le Pen. But now the focus has shifted as increased candidate rating radical leftist Jean-Luc Jean-Luc Mélenchon and again pay attention to the first round of elections, which will take place on 23 April.
That is, it turns out that in the second round can be quite really two candidates that are not conducive to the unity of the euro zone, after all, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Le Pen are configured radically.
Now let's talk about the hidden risks. For example, about China, namely the stimulation of the national currency in 2016 and what the consequences of deviations from the planned course, will bring the world economy
should be noted that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing of China have steadily positive growth since February 2016 years from the date when the cost of raw materials reached the bottom. These events have led to changes in the economy, and the market immediately reacted to changing expectations regarding economic growth and inflation, and the victory in the US election Trump only accelerated the process.
Interestingly, the Chinese imports increased by almost 15% if we compare the figures from the previous year, but US imports increased by only 3.5%. These data underscore the aspect that China is in the midst of the global reflation. It should be noted that China's share of global investment is 27%, while China's economy is 15% of world GDP.
But it is already clear that China has been gradually reducing stimulus and gradually tightens its policy, and it can be a serious article additional costs.
From this it follows that the mood for risk among investors on the one hand, in the short term will depend on the elections in France, on the other hand, in the long term depends on the growth of the world economy, which, one way or another, affect China.
Based on materials WELTRADE
