So who UE edit in the race for the post of president of the USA, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Polls - is not the only way to predict who will win . Keep an eye on the stock market and the economy.
Clinton - a clear favorite, if the economy and markets thrive. Many voters equate its approach policy approach to the current president, Barack Obama.
To date, the S & P 500 indicates that a victory for Trump, but the rest of "market performance", according to by CNNMoney, point to Clinton.
1. Stock Market
Look at the performance of the stock market in the period from August 1 to October 31. If the stock is trading above - a victory for Hillary. If the shares were down, likely to become the next president of the United States Trump.
At the moment, the stock market is telling us that in this race leads Donald Trump: the S & P 500 (the main index of the US stock market) fell slightly in the period from August 1, but is close to the level reached in the day.
As strange as it may sound, but the stock market was surprisingly accurate forecaster for every presidential election since 1944, according to the artwork S & P Global Market Intelligence on the stock markets of Sam Stovall.
2. The US economy
Moody's Analytics experts based on their own model, which did not bring them, since 1980 - economic indicators.This year's model points to a landslide victory Clinton.
Radically change the situation are two factors: rising fuel prices above $ 3 per gallon, or a significant drop in the approval rating of President Obama.
Today, Americans are buying fuel at $ 2.21 a gallon on average, according to the American Association of motorists.
3. Mexican Peso
This may seem strange, but the Mexican peso was a new figure in the fight for the presidency. At the moment, the currency of points to win Clinton.
Why? It comes down to Trump's statements regarding the relationship between the US and Mexico. The presidential candidate wants to build a wall between the two countries (at the expense of Mexico), as well as to revise the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
So every time investors think that the chances of winning increased Trump - the value of the Mexican peso falls.And vice versa. After the first debate, the Mexican currency has risen significantly.
Based on materials WELTRADE
