Trump VS Clinton or how to make money in US elections?

 So, the race for the post of the new president of the USA is in full swing. To say that the voters have to make a very difficult choice, anyway, that silent, because in the history of the electoral race has never been so opposite personalities competing for presidential laurels with all the ensuing consequences.

Let us think what the political and economic changes can occur in the US economy and part of the world in case of victory of Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?

Scenario №1: Clinton comes to power

Perhaps this is the most likely and least painless outcome of the presidential race. Hillary Clinton is unlikely to be "bend the line", if only because she is a slave Democrat, fixated on the idea of ​​an established political system, which has become a road map of Barack Obama. All known Obamacare program, which is based on health care reform and the protection of patients, while Clinton can find a second wind. The insurance coverage will cover more people, will be more affordable health care. Clinton agrees to reduce the price of many medications, take measures to protect consumers from sudden, guarantee the right to an affordable service price increases for lifesaving drugs. Of course, each of these initiatives worthy of the highest praise, but what will be the pharmaceutical companies, which in the US market has never driven in the hard grip of a limited pricing? I guess hard times. Moreover, quotas and major US pharmacists Abbott Laboratories (ABT.US), Pfizer (PFE.US) and McKesson Corporation (MCK.US) are quite capable to rewrite the local minima.

But who will certainly win, so it's major defense contractors and companies of the military-industrial complex. Clinton has repeatedly made it clear that he supports the US intervention force in the Syrian and the Libyan conflict. According to Hillary, with more active position of the country's leadership Syrian Free Army would already took Damascus, Russia and China would not have behaved as "provocative" and Ukrainian army, armed with the latest American weapons, have regained control over the Donbas. In other words, the potential stiffness, pressure and willingness to use force together create a strong foundation for the entire country's defense complex orders. The greatest benefit will receive major government contractors, including Lockheed Martin (LMT.US), Northrop Grumman (NOC.US), Raytheon (RTN.US), L-3 Communications (lll.US), Honeywell (HON.US), Textron (TXT.US) and Oshkosh (OSK.US). Shares of these companies you can buy right now.

Clinton Presidency could also mark a new period in the development of renewable energy sources. Clinton plans activities that could lead to an increase in solar power capacity at times. Provide a similar increase is planned at the expense of funding the production of solar cells. More than any other benefit from this monopoly of solar power company First Solar of the US market.

What will happen to the dollar?

Given the relatively conservative Hillary Clinton's policy, we can assume that it will continue the concept of soft regulation of the financial system, that is, will not rush to raise interest rates, low values ​​and helped Obama to override the "Fund" highs. It is unclear what will happen to the level of public debt, however, guided by historical practices of democracy, the problem is likely to be passed on to others. How to do it? It's simple enough to lift his limits again, winning a few years. Having said that, in the early years of the Clinton presidency, the potential US currency could maintain its neutrality, but then fears the collapse of the national financial system, damping consumer spending and lost productivity risk turning the dollar in the market outsider.

In general, if Clinton will win, the Americans will have another 4-notch conservative policy with a stable economic growth, modest dollar and the Fed's "sluggish".

Scenario №2: America goes to Trump

The victory marks the period of Trump very unpredictable and protectionist US policies that could radically change the geopolitical positioning of a number of regions in the world. Another big consequences await America itself. In the case of trade and immigration program Trump in the US may be shortage of economic resources, namely, raw materials and labor, which is the national economy is 5% of GDP by the end of his presidential term. Protectionist ideas Trump suggested establishing high tariffs for products from China and Mexico. Of course, this will increase the competitiveness of domestic producers, however, affected the exporters themselves, as the same will go to China will certainly react.Economists Oxford Economics estimated that the economic costs of such samorestriktsy could cost the US economy more than $ 1 trillion. First at risk by falling orders, will be the largest transport company, specializing in the transport of goods: UPS (UPS.US), FedEx (FDX.US) and Expeditors International (EXPD.US).

Unlike Clinton, Trump is planning to support not alternative energy, and shale oil. In one of his statements to reporters, he urged the government to "get out of the way" energy sector, criticizing the existing rules of the oil and coal industry.According to him, the technological support for the idea of ​​shale drilling will allow more than 1,000 scout additional fields that will create new jobs. It is not surprising that US oil companies are among the few manufacturers who are willing to cast their votes in favor of Donald Trump, based on the growth of capitalization of their companies. Against this background, we recommend to look at the purchase of shares of oil producers like Devon Energy (DVN.US), Marathon Oil (MPC.US), EOG Resources Inc (EOG.US) and Anadarco (APC.US).

Prospects for the dollar at Trampe

Oddly enough, but the probability of strengthening of the dollar at the Trampe is much higher than with Clinton. Suffice it to recall the famous slogan of the need to impulsive billionaire total audit the Fed, under 100% control of the global financial banks. Position Trump is not meaningless. According to him, low interest rates create billions of dollars out of thin air, pushing stock prices to higher cosmic frontiers, the very same economy while marking time. The US central bank blew the biggest bubble in the history of the world financial system, continuing to throw the economy unsecured money. Only during the crisis of 2008-2009. The Fed gave banks shareholders of approximately $ 20 trillion in the form of secret loans, rather than to bet on the real sector, industry and technology. If Trump is so openly critical of the fact of extremely low interest rates, it is logical to assume that in the event of his presidency, the rate hike will go more rapidly. Despite the fact that this is contrary to the position expressed previously about the need to support domestic producers, because the growth rates will lead to a strengthening of the dollar and, accordingly, reduce the competitiveness of domestic exporters, Trump is willing to risk by lobbying for the idea of ​​monetary tightening. At the same time can be carried out and a comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve. It is worth noting that the desire Trump to "discipline" the Fed will be able to save him from criticism in the future. Constantly pointing to "fake" the US economy is better to reveal the root cause of it immediately. Taking this into account, the US currency may count on the support and in the face of Trump, at least at the beginning of his presidential term. And then, as the chip will fall.

Already on November 8, we will learn not only about who will take Obama's place in the Oval Office, but also of the investment scenario for the future is better to stick to the nearest year.

At the moment, the preponderance in favor of Clinton:

Based on materials AMarkets