Forex. Weather forecast for the week of 10-14 October 2016
Gold XAU / USD forecast for the week 10-14.10.2016
Earlier this week, investors should wait for the correction to the growth of quotations 1267/1279 on profit taking on short positions due to the weakness of the US dollar.
The release on the labor market in the US for September came out worse than forecast values for the Non-Farm and unemployment, which will put pressure on the dollar in the short term and in turn have a positive impact on the cost of the precious metal. What will happen next? I expect the continuation of the bearish trend, as the USDX Dollar Index will show an upward trend. Friday's release on the labor market increased investors' expectations for the Fed rate in December from 55.1% to 60%. Quarterly Non-Farm came out at the level of the previous year, while increased by 30.9% compared to the second quarter of 2015. At the end of last week, the yellow metal lost 5.3%, demonstrating the maximum weeks Yelnia drop since October 26, 2014. Investors are already beginning to lay in quotes tightening of monetary policy FOMC since last week was observed a strong "appetite for risk" and therefore did not need to buy gold as a safe asset.
Gold recommendations : Invest frames in the new week is to sell the metal on the growth of quotations Sell to 1267/1279 and take profit around 1243.
Brent oil forecast for the week 10-14.10.2016
During the week should be open Sell position for two reasons.
First, the oil last week renewed a maximum of the current year, but could not hold onto the conquered frontier, while the dollar index USDX basket for the week increased by 1.18%. It should be noted that the US currency has completed the first week of the new quarter to the highest level in the past two months. This factor is a negative for the black gold as the price of oil is denominated in dollars and the dollar index rise may cause a correction in oil prices.
Second, on Friday, Baker Hughes has reported an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States, Canada and Mexico on 3.3 and 2 units, respectively. Thus, in the United States and Canada, today the number of active drilling rigs is at the highest level since February 19, 2016, in Mexico, at a maximum 15 April of the current year. Though slowly, but the number of drilling rigs begins to grow on the entire North American continent, which will contribute to the growth of oil supply in the global market and have a negative impact on the quotes.
Oil recommendations: the auction of the week investors should sell oil to Sell on the growth of quotations to 52,00 / 53,30 and 50,30 mark to record profits.
Pronoza S & P500 for the week 10-14.10.2016
In the coming week kicks off the season of corporate reporting. The first release of quarterly publish Alcoa on Tuesday 11 October. I expect positive data against the backdrop of rising prices for aluminum, as well as increasing the Baltic Dry Index in the third quarter by 39.5%. This index is a strong leading indicator of business activity, as it reflects the demand for sea freight worldwide. On Friday, Citigroup will report to representatives of the banking sector, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo & Company, and against the background of reducing the volume of mergers / acquisitions, as well as lower net interest margin is difficult to expect strong data. You can not ignore the significant increase in the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds at the end of last week, which is usually a negative factor for the stock market. Bonds and stocks traditionally compete for funds from investors, and early growth of profitability promotes the outflow of capital from the stock.
SP500 recommendations : During the week investors on SP500 worth waiting for the flat within the range of 2130- 2190.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Analyst « FreshForex »
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