Forex. Weather forecast for the week of 3-7 October 2016
Forex. Gold XAU / USD forecast for the week:
Two reasons for investors to sell gold to a new week.
The first reason , according to tradition growing "appetite for risk" negative impact on the course of the metal.Investors today are building up positions in carry trade against the background of the reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and the decision of OPEC to reduce production volume of 1 million. Barrels / day from November. Gold has historically been considered a "safe asset", and now need to buy the precious metal is not.
The second reason , a positive report on the labor market in the United States, which is necessary to wait for traders to October 7, that will probably cause the growth of the American currency quotations, and will put pressure on gold, as the metal costs are denominated in US dollars. Why wait for a positive employment report? This is indicated by the two leading indicators: the indicator 4-week average for unemployment benefits is at the lowest level of the year, while the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board at the end of September rose to the highest since August 2007. The consumer confidence index rose to a peak since the last recession in the United States.
Gold advice for investors : At the auction of the week players in gold is to sell the metal on the growth of quotations Sell to 1320/1330 and take profit around 1302.
Brent oil forecast for the week
Wait Two reasons investors Oil price growth in first half of trading of the new week.
The first reason , the auction ponefti last week closed higher by 9%, against the decision of OPEC to reduce oil production from November. Investors did not expect such a decision from the cartel and, in this regard, surprises are always hard and often long recoup market.
The second reason , the company Baker Hughes on Friday once again reported about the growth of the US drilling rigs to 7 units, while market participants ignored this negative, that indicates a large number of buyers in the market. If the market is ignoring the negative, strong subsidence should not wait and traders will be to re-move the market to buy up these price reductions. Importantly, drilling platforms have increased not only in the United States and in Canada and Mexico, 7 and 1 unit, respectively. In Mexico, the left to the maximum since April 29, and in Canada at a maximum since February 19 of this year. In Canada, the number of drilling rigs has increased 8 times in the last two months. Oil companies tend to quickly ramp up production capacity, using an upward trend in the market of black gold to increase revenue and profit.
Oil recommendations for the week : oil investors in the auction of the week is to buy raw materials Buy on decline of quotations to 49.60 / 48.50 and take profit around 50.92.
S & P500 Index forecast for the week
Investors on the S & P500 index in the first half of trading of the week should expect an increase in the background of positive macroeconomic statistics, and demand for risky assets. Of the important reports is to provide data on the ISM for the service sector and the manufacturing sector, which are likely to come out slightly better than median forecast on the background growth of inflationary expectations, and employment that traditionally accompanied by an increase in business activity. VIX fear index on Friday fell by 5.2%, while the leaders of growth in the stock market in the US was a paper of the energy sector. Friday was the last trading day of the month and quarter, and if investors bought shares, it means that they are willing to risk in the first days of the new month. Although then probably wave of sales of shares after the release of data on the labor market on Friday 7 October. As noted earlier, it is necessary to wait for the positive employment data, which will contribute to an increase Treasury yields and increase expectations of the future increase the FED discount rate.
The S & P500 recommendations for a week: on S & P500 Investors in the new week is worth waiting for the flat in the range of 2130- 2190
Aleksandr Goryachev
Analyst « FreshForex »
:
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