Weather forex October 12, 2016
The main event for traders today:
15.00 MSK. US: FOMC member William Dudley will make a speech.
21.00 MSK. US: Publication of minutes of the Fed.
Forex. Currency pair EUR USD forecast EUR / USD today 12/10/2016
On the eve of a pair of two-updated at least today we can expect a corrective pullback top for two reasons. Firstly, the reduction in "risk appetite" can support the demand for the euro as a funding currency.
Euro in the last two years has become a safe asset, along with the Japanese yen and the sale of the equity markets may have a positive impact on its value. Second, in the US trading session will be published by "minute" Fed, where you can expect a short-term negative reaction on the US currency, as the majority of FOMC members are set conservatively with regard to the imminent changes in interest rates. At the end of the last meeting of the committee was divided into two camps: 7 members in favor of a rate hike at the end of the year, and 3 were in favor of a rate hike in September. In general, any new information in this protocol, we do not get as September 21 FED gave forecasts for three years, and a conference was held D. Yellen. However, the short term the pair is The adjusted up to major market participants again began to build short positions. The strong dynamics of the dollar index USDX basket implies a decline of quotations EUR / USD pair to 1.0950 by the end of the month.
EUR / USD recommendation : Players euro worth buying a pair of euro dollar Buy's reduction of quotations to 1.1045 / 1.1010 and take profit at the level of 1.1090.
Forex. The currency pair Pound Dollar forecast for today GBP / USD 12.10.2016
The pair is still the weakest link in the foreign exchange market and the nearest support can act as a psychological level of 1.20. On the negative background is formed today. Firstly, the credit markets the yield on 10-year UK government bonds is reduced in relation to their counterparts from the United States and Germany, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in British assets. Second, the commodity market started large-scale sell-off due to strong strengthening of the dollar index basket. Between the USDX and commodity there is a strong, historical inverse correlation, and there is nothing surprising in the fact that the growth of quotations of the American currency provoked on the eve of the fall in oil and metal prices. Since the last two weeks oil has grown, and the pound fell, but now, when the black gold will show weakness, the pressure en strelingov pound increase.
GBP / USD recommendation: Investors should sell the pound dollar pair Sell on the growth of quotations to 1.2160 / 1.2220 and take profit at the level of 1.2085.
Forex. Currency pair yen dollar forecast for today USD / JPY 12.10.2016
Today is formed by a downward trend against the background of capital flight from risky assets. On Tuesday, the index VIX fear grew by 22%, which indicates a lack of appetite for risk among investors. Leading stock markets in Europe and North America, finished the day in the "red zone". US index of wide market S & P500 lost more than 1.5%. In this connection, we can expect the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency in the carry trade №1 operations.The development of the bearish trend and indicates the dynamics of the debt market: the yield differential of 10-year US Treasury bonds and Japan shrinking, reducing the attractiveness of investment in US assets. However, I do not think we will see a strong sell-off, as the decrease in quotations may cause long-term investors to build long positions, based on the future of the Fed raising interest rates.
USDJPY recommendations : Igrrokam a dollar today is worth selling on the forex pair Dollar Yen Sell the growth of quotations in the area of 103.50 / 103.75 and take profit at the level of 103.10.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Analyst « FreshForex »
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