Forex. The forecast for today 09/19/2016: Two reasons for investors to sell EUR / USD, buy USD / JPY!
Forex. Weather forecast on September 19, 2016
The main events for today:
An important macroeconomic statistics is expected.
Currency pair EUR USD EUR / USD forecast for today 19/09/2016
Two reasons for investors to sell the euro / dollar:
The first reason, a report on inflation in the US, which was released on Friday, showed a moderately positive data that has changed the balance of power in the credit markets businesses. Differential yields of German and US 10-year-old began to decline again, this reduces the attractiveness of investments in the assets of the Old World. Although published data did not change expectations of investors around the US Federal Reserve meeting on 21 September.Current data is not enough to increase interest rates on Wednesday, but the positive trend on the core CPI index is sufficient to raise interest rates at the meeting on 14 December. The last 10 months, core inflation above the 2% of the US economy has not seen the last four years.
The second reason , in Europe the banking sector once again picking up the problem, it will lead to an increase in pessimism about the euro. Monetary regulators in the United States impose a fine on Deutsche Bank 14 billion. Dollars.in the case of mortgage-backed securities in the period of 2006-2008 years And if the leading financial institution in Europe to pay the fine, the capital adequacy ratio fall below the standard. On Friday, the bank's shares fell 8.4%, with the DAX30 index drop of 1.49%. According to the distribution on Friday hit other banks of the Old World: the shares sank UniCredit 5,79%, Bankia at 3.46%.
EUR / USD advice for investors : Today, the players of the forex market for the euro with the American is selling a pair of EUR / USD on the Sell growth of quotations in the domain st 1.1185 / 1.1208 and take profit at the level of 1.1125.
Forex. Currency pair pound dollar GBP / USD forecast for today 19/09/2016
Currency pair GBP / USD forex trading fell by 1.81% on Friday, showing the maximum daily fall since July 5 this year.Apparently weary of the two-month sterling Flete, and Pound decided to update at least the year (1.2796). Although, some of the traders who had expected growth at the beginning of the British policy towards the upper border of the flat (1.3476), followed by a strong price decline for new yearly lows. Investors often chase market first in one direction and then abruptly unfold in another. As a result, the upper limit of the flat traders have not seen. The fall of the pound has long suggested itself as the market developed divergent expectations of the monetary policy of the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve: the first promise to lower the rate until the end of 2016, the second promise to raise the rate, although the exact dates are not announced. It is impossible to ignore the drop in prices for black gold. Over the past week, oil prices fell by 3.6%. In view of the growth of production in North America and the complete driving season in the US and the subsequent fall in demand for petroleum products, it is necessary to wait for new sales contracts basic reference, this will increase the pressure on the currency of Albion.
GBP / USD advice for investors : Today in the forex trading market, investors should sell the pair GBP / USD on the Sell growth of quotations to 1.3050 / 1.3100 and take profit at the level of 1.2970.
Forex. Currency pair USD JPY USD / JPY forecast for today 09/19/2016
Traders Buy USD / JPY for two reasons.
First , the yield differential of US and Japanese 10-year government bonds extended after Friday's CPI data, it increases the attractiveness of investment in the United States assets. The Bank of Japan on Wednesday will announce the results of the meeting, and investors are waiting for new stimulus measures against the background of low inflation expectations in Japan. This factor in the short term is likely embolden bulls testing 104 pieces.
Second , despite the fall in Friday's leading stock markets, the US stock market last week closed in the "green zone". It is worth noting a drop of fear index VIX for Friday at 5.7% for the week and 12.1%, respectively. Thus, the conclusion is that investors' fears are leveled and at the upcoming week should not expect a moderate demand for riskier assets, which ultimately put pressure on the yen as a funding currency.
USD / JPY advice for investors : Today, forex traders should buy the pair USD / JPY quotes at reducing the Buy to 102.15 / 101.85 and take profit at the level of 102.70.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Analyst « FreshForex »
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