Forex Events today:
11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for the construction sector in March (the previous value of 52.5, forecast 52.5).
Forecast for euro dollar EUR / USD today 04/04/2017
On Monday, the euro dollar forex trading 1.0642 -1.0680. Players should not expect the downtrend to continue and yesterday's release of business activity in the US industrial sector from the ISM confirms this trend. PMI index came out at the level of the median forecasts, showing a positive trend for seven months in a row. It should be noted employment growth to the level of 58.9 and an increase in the price component to the level of 70.5, which in both cases is the highest level since June 2011. We get the first positive signal before the release of Friday's Non-Farm, as well as another signal of growing inflation expectations.
Thus, both figures show an increase in inflation in the United States that would allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the meeting on 14 June. Nearest FOMC meeting held on May 3, but it will be no news conference J. Yellen, and all previous rate hikes have occurred at the meetings with the press conference. On the eve of the Fed acted Harker, who said about the possibility of raising interest rates three times. Thus, in the camp of the American regulator split: one part of the leaders in favor of 2 increase, the other part of 3 increase.
EUR / USD recommendation 04.04.2017: Sell 1,0679 / 1,0720 and ta ! Ke profit 1.0630.
Forecast Forex Pound Dollar GBP / USD today 04/04/2017
Traders sell sterling with the aim of 1.2380. There are three reasons for the sales.
First, yesterday's report on the production sector PMI UK disappointed investors weak data. As noted earlier, a similar release in the US of the ISM, indicates an increase in inflation expectations, which is positive for the "bulls" on the dollar.
Second, the market for black gold there is correction after the rapid growth of quotations of four, which is also positive for the US currency.
Third, today's report by the UK PMI construction sector may also disappoint investors weak data on the background reduce the volume of mortgage lending.
GBP / USD recommendation: Sell 1,2502 / 1,2540 and t ake profit 1.2380.
Forex forecast Dollar Yen USD / JPY 04.04.2017
Today, investors should wait for the growth of quotations on the US stock market, which will contribute to the demand for the pair USD / JPY. Yesterday's report from the ISM for the manufacturing sector of the United States pointed to the growth of business activity in the amount of 4.4% of GDP. Current index PMI 57,2, while a year ago it was at 51.7. Average quarterly value in comparison with the fourth quarter increased by 6.9%. This is a very high figure, which the market had not seen. Export orders increased in 11 industries, reaching the highest level since November 2013. Earlier, export orders decreased moderately due to the strengthening of the national currency, but now we see the acceleration of growth.
In my opinion, this positive release is not the last this week. Players should wait for stronger PMI ISM data for the services sector (5 April), as well as the Non-Farm (April 7), which has a positive impact on the value of US stocks. Yesterday umerennot decline in S & P500 0.16% I consider as a correction because the "risk appetite" remains robust as evidenced by the inflow of capital to emerging markets. When investors are scared by something they are primarily run from Emerging Markets, and now this is not observed.
USD / JPY recommendation: Buy 110,90 / 11, 0.65 , and take profit 111,80.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company analyst FreshForex
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