Forex Analytics

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On Thursday the 12th of October, trading on the euro/dollar currency pair closed down. The rate fell from 1.1880 to 1.1827. At the beginning of the European session, the euro dropped further as the dollar rose across the board. It then received some support from the euro/pound cross following reports that Brexit talks had hit a deadlock. The price briefly recovered from 1.1827 to 1.1851 before falling back to 1.1827.

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On Friday the 13th of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. The day’s session turned out quite volatile due to the publication of September’s figures for consumer inflation and retail sales in the US, which came out worse than expected. The euro surged 70 pips on this weak data, but erased all its gains before the end of the day.

The US’s CPI grew by 2.2% in September against a forecast of +2.3%. Retail sales grew by 1.6% on the previous month against a forecast of 1.9%.

On Monday the 16th of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly down. The pair spent most of its time in a sideways trend. After dropping to 1.1781, the euro recovered its lost ground to reach 1.1819. Still, the price didn’t make it to the balance line, which at that point ran through 1.1826 levels.

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On Tuesday the 17th of October, the US dollar continued its growth against the majors. In the US session, the euro dropped to 1.1736. Market participants share the opinion that the dollar’s rise in the first half of the day was down to talk that John Taylor, an advocate of tight monetary policy, could become the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve. Donald Trump is expected to announce his choice for the post before the 3rd of November. With the support of some of the euro crosses, the daily candlestick on the euro/dollar instrument closed at 1.1766.

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On Wednesday the 18th of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up. After hitting a new weekly low, the price mounted a recovery to 1.1817 that extended into the Asian session. I can’t see any fundamental factors that would have caused the euro’s 87-pip rally. I reckon the price underwent a correction on the longer timeframes.

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On Thursday the 19th of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up. The British pound was not so fortunate. The main reason for the euro’s rise on the crosses was the news from Spain. Mariano Rajoy, the Prime Minister of Spain, announced his government’s intention to impose direct rule on Catalonia after the region’s president, Carles Puigdemont, refused to rule out an official declaration of independence.

The government wants to chair an emergency meeting on Saturday in order to trigger Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution; thereby limiting the authority of the Catalonian government. The euro rate restored to 1.1858 but erased most of these gains this morning following news from the US.

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On Friday the 20th of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. The dollar launched on attack on all fronts following the news that the US Senate had approved the 2018 budget. The single currency came under added pressure from the uncertainty surrounding Catalonia as well as a slide on the euro/pound cross.

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On Monday the 23rd of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. The rate dropped to 1.1725 during trading in Chicago. The euro fell on the back of a rising dollar and the Catalonian crisis.

The main driver for the dollar was the optimism surrounding tax reform in the US as well as Donald Trump’s announcement that he will soon nominate a candidate to head the Federal Reserve

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On Wednesday the 25th of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up. Buyers were unfazed by positive US data and the drop on the euro/pound cross. When the euro started correcting against the British pound and US 10Y bond yields started to drop, growth on our pair gathered pace. This surge petered out at around 1.1818.

Demand for the single currency was consistent throughout the day as investors await a decision from the European regulator on tapering its asset purchasing stimulus program.

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On Thursday the 26th of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. The euro came under pressure after the ECB announced its decision to extend its QE program by 9 months. ECB head Mario Draghi cited concerns over relatively low inflation and added that some significant stimulus measures would be required to keep it up.

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On Friday the 27th of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. Euro bulls held on to 1.1620 level until the last moment. Pressure on them increased after the publication of strong 3rd quarter GDP data from the US. The reading came to 3% against a forecast of 2.5%. The euro dropped to 1.1580 on this news.

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On Monday the 30th of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up. Euro bulls managed to restore the price to 1.1658, partially recovering the losses incurred by the ECB meeting and the strong US GDP data for the third quarter.

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On Tuesday the 31st of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly down. The price spent the day trading within a 36-pip range from 1.1625 to 1.1661. Euro bulls tried three times to induce a rebound from 1.1625 levels, but the price was dragged back to the balance line as the dollar was trading up against almost all the majors.

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On Thursday the 2nd of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up. Euro bulls got some unexpected support as sellers shorted the pound following the Bank of England’s meeting. The pound shed 163 pips against the euro to reach 0.8939, while dropping 227 pips against the US dollar to hit 1.3043. The euro rose against the dollar to 1.1687, returning to around 1.1658 by the end of the day.

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On Friday the 3rd of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. Volatility surged during the US session. I don’t even know whether the stop levels of intraday traders managed to withstand the US data or not.