Forex Analytics

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On Monday the 6th of November, the euro/dollar pair closed just 2 pips away from Friday’s closing price, leaving a long tail on the daily candlestick that reaches down to 1.1580. During the European session, the euro dropped to 1.1580. The main forces behind this were BoE governor Mark Carney’s speech and a drop for US bond yields and crosses involving the euro.

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On Tuesday the 7th of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly down (-19 pips). In Europe, the euro dropped to 1.1554 as the US dollar rose across the board. The head and shoulders model looks to be continuing its formation and a sharp reversal looks on the cards. This kind of behavior can be compared to when, after a run, you try to catch your breath and get punched in the stomach. It messes with your breathing so much that you don’t want to run anymore. Declines along with sharp rebounds are good for intraday traders who are working within a limited range, but annoying for trend followers.

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On Wednesday the 8th of November, trading on the euro/dollar currency pair closed slightly up. The euro traded against the dollar within a narrow range of 1.1579 to 1.1611 (32 pips). During the US session, sellers tried to break the 1.1580 support, but fell short. The price then restored to 1.1599.

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On Thursday the 9th of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up. The trend line was broken through as I expected. After breaking the resistance zone around 1.1606, the euro jumped to 1.1655. The US dollar came under pressure from the fact that the new tax reform legislation proposed by the Senate includes deferring a corporate tax break until 2019.

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On Friday the 10th of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly up. The US dollar showed some mixed dynamics against the majors before the weekend. It dropped against the pound and euro while rising against the rest.

The dollar came under pressure due to uncertainty over the US’s tax reform program. It received support, however, from growth in US 10Y bond yields. On Friday, the rate closed at 1.1663, with an intraday high of 1.1678 and a low of 1.1623.

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On Monday the 13th of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed 11 pips up. The euro dropped during the first half of the day before going on to mount a recovery. The rebound from the low of 1.1637 was partially down to growth on the euro crosses. The biggest mover among these in terms of growth was the euro/pound cross.

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On Tuesday the 14th of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up at around 1.18, with an intraday range of 140 pips. The euro rose thanks to positive data from Germany and the Eurozone, growth on the euro crosses, and a decline in US 10Y bond yields. The dollar showed some mixed dynamics against the majors as there were a lot of important news releases.

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On Wednesday the 15th of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down to form a pin bar or shooting start model on the daily timeframe. The euro opened up in the European session. In the space of three hours, the rate jumped 68 pips to 1.1853. After the publication of US data, buyers shifted the intraday high to 1.1860.

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On Thursday the 16th of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. The rate twice approached the zone of 1.1757 – 1.1759, but failed to break through. News from the US didn’t do sellers any good either. The US House of Representatives yesterday passed a tax reform bill proposed by the Trump administration. Markets were slow to react to the news given that the Senate has put forward an alternative proposal, which involves deferring tax cuts for another year. As such, it’s unclear as of yet what the final legislation will look like.

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On Friday the 17th of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly up. Despite continued pressure on the euro due to difficulties in Germany in forming a coalition government, the single currency was bolstered by a surge in demand following a retreat by traders towards safe haven assets amid new developments concerning North Korea. The euro was also helped by a decline in US bond yields, which brought the dollar down with it.

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On Thursday the 23rd of November, the US dollar index hit a monthly low of 93.07. Accordingly, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up. Given the euro’s 57.6% weighting on the DXY, the EURUSD pair practically mirrors the index’s movements. The single currency was boosted by European data (German GDP and Eurozone business activity), as well as the US dollar’s weakness.

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On Friday the 24th of November, trading on the euro closed up. The euro has gained 231 pips (+1.97%) against the dollar in the space of 4 days. The US dollar came under pressure after the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting were published (22nd of November), as well as from weak US data and a decline in bond yields. The single currency has been bolstered by prospects of a more favourable outcome to the political crisis currently taking place in Germany as well as the positive German IFO report.

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On Monday the 4th of December, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. The euro and the pound spent the day under the influence of political factors. Volatility was high on pairs including the pound.

After dropping during the morning hours, the pound surged 100 pips against the dollar after reports of a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations concerning the UK’s terms of exit from the EU. Accordingly, the euro came under pressure from this against the dollar via the euro/pound cross.

Forex forecast on December 28, 2017

Events today:

18:00 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Department of Energy in December (previous value -6495K; -3900K forecast).

Forex euro dollar forecast EUR / USD at today 12/28/2017

Forex euro dollar forecast EUR / USD on 29/12/2017
 

Investors - Buy two reasons for EUR / USD.

First, the yield on German 10-year bonds on the bond market shows growth to American and English papers, it is positive for the euro. 
 

Second, the commodity market is maintained upward trend, which will put pressure on the dollar, as the raw materials and the US currency traded in different directions. commodity market leaders are still the gold and oil. On the eve of the United States have reported a reduction of stocks and reducing the level of black gold. For the oil market is a positive signal. Now Brent oil is trading at the highest level in two and a half years and the uptrend is gaining momentum - expect growth to 67.00. 

EUR / USD recommendation 29/12/2017: Buy 1,1940 / 1,1920 and take profit 1,1970.